19.11.2014 - Equity Research Einzelstudie // kaufen

Research Report (Update) – Sygnis AG - buy

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Unternehmen: SYGNIS AG
Branche: Biotechnologie-Pharma
Rating: kaufen
Kurs bei Erstellung in €: 17.11.2014; 2,64
Kursziel in €: 4,05
Mögl. Interessenskonflikt gem. §34b Abs.1 WpHG und FinAnv: 4;5

From technology to production company with TruePrime; a capital increase will be used to finance growth

As expected, the turnover level reached in the first nine months of 2014 and amounting to €0.30m (PY: €0.40m) was low due to the still low commercialization revenues. The majority of the revenues was generated in the third quarter of 2014 (€0.14m; PY: €0.08m), which is an indication that the turnover level is tending to increase. However, the marketing of SensiPhi, which represents the main focus, is still below expectations.

With virtually unchanged revenues, EBIT increased compared to the previous year to €-2.27m (PY: €-2.83 m). This is primarily attributable to the cost saving measures implemented and concluded in the 2013 financial year (in particular HR area), which meant that the break-even level of revenues has been reduced to approx. €3.5m.

The liquidity base, combined with the corresponding range, is of fundamental importance for SYGNIS AG in the current phase. In the first nine months, the cash burn was a total of €-2.92m (PY: €-2.26m). Some of the financing requirements could be met via capital increases as part of a SEDA agreement amounting to €1.19m. Nevertheless, liquid assets were reduced as of 30/09/2014 to €0.36m (31/12/2013: €2.20m). The planned capital increase in amounting to up to €4.95m, should substantially increase the liquidity reserve and extend the range until the break-even level is reached. In addition, the capital increase is to primarily be used to finance the product pipeline and the development and production of the SYGNIS kits.

As well as the further development and expansion of the product range, the company’s focus is clearly on the marketing of self-developed technology. SensiPhi which has already been out-licensed to Qiagen and which constitutes the basis for two amplification kits is just as much a focus as the planned self-marketing activities of PrimPol (product line: TruePrime). In particular the own marketing of PrimPol is representative of the new marketing strategy of SYGNIS AG. The aim of this is to be less dependent on the marketing partners.

As a result of an expected increase in revenues, we are anticipating turnover of €2.06m for the 2015 financial year and of €5.45m for 2016. According to our planning, the EBIT break-even should be reached in the 2016 financial year, with a EBIT-forecast of €1.27m. Fundamentally, we thus see SYGNIS AG well positioned with its product portfolio to participate in the high growth rates of the NGS market.

Based on the updated DCF model, we have determined a fair value per share of €4.05 (up to now: €4.60). The share price target is based on our adjusted revenue and earnings expectations for the next two years and the unchanged long-term forecast. In addition, we took the capital increase with the increased number of shares (dilution effect) into account, assuming a full placement. With a current share price of €2.64, we are thus renewing the rating BUY.


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