Greiffenberger AG

27.08.2013 - Equity Research Einzelstudie // kaufen

Research Report Update - Greiffenberger AG - Buy

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Unternehmen: Greiffenberger AG
ISIN: DE0005897300
Branche: Industrie-Maschinenbau-Technologie-Automotive
Rating: kaufen
Kurs bei Erstellung in €: 26.08.2013 - 5,70
Kursziel in €: 9,30
Mögl. Interessenskonflikt gem. §34b Abs.1 WpHG und FinAnv: 5,7

Greiffenberger AG had to record a reduction in turnover in the first half of 2013. Although the group was able to grow considerably following a weaker first quarter 2013, it was not yet able to fully compensate the fall in turnover. While the largest subsidiary ABM can look back on an encouraging operating development, turnover at Eberle and BKP fell markedly.
For BKP, the long winter and a smaller number of public tenders had their impact on turnover figures.

Greiffenberger AG’s financial ratios have further improved in the first half of 2013. Due to a positive annual net profit, equity increased to €32.56 million, which corresponds to an equity ratio of 25.7% by the end of June 2013. At the same time, thanks to a positive cash flow it was possible to reduce the net debt by more than €1 million to €40.5 million.

The half year figures for 2013 were, due to a weaker first quarter, slightly below our expectations. We have thus adjusted our forecasts for the business year 2013 slightly downward. Our prediction for 2013 is now sales revenues of €159.00 million (previously: €162.00 million) and an EBIT of €13.76 million (previously: €14.33 million). Our forecast takes into account an exceptional burden due to the new plant in Lublin, of around €1.7 million. Thanks to the disappearance of these start-up costs for the new plant in Poland as well as an overall increase in business volume, a marked increase in earnings can be assumed for the coming business year 2014.

On the basis of the current share price, our valuation figures indicate a significant undervaluation of Greiffenberger shares. In particular when one’s attention is drawn to the year 2014, the price-to-earnings-ratio of around 7 appears especially attractive and is, according to our assessment, unduly low. The share price is currently noted at just under 20% below
the shares’ book value.

Our target for Greiffenberger AG share prices is still €9.30. We are therefore reiterating our recommendation to buy shares. Taking the current share price as a starting point, a significant share price potential of more than 60% is obtained.


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