MagForce AG
23.03.2017 - Equity Research Einzelstudie // kaufen
Research Note – MagForce AG - english - buy
| For the original study, please click here |
ISIN: DE000A0HGQF5
Branche: Biotechnologie-Pharma
Rating: kaufen
Kurs bei Erstellung in €: 4,30
Kursziel in €: 13,90
Mögl. Interessenskonflikt gem. §34b Abs.1 WpHG und FinAnv: 5a;5b;6a;11
MagForce AG has used its first published letter to shareholders of 2017 to announce the introduction and implementation of significant strategic measures. The main topic is the planned roll-out in Europe, which will involve MagForce technology being installed in additional treatment centers in Germany’s neighbouring countries. A NanoActivator® is currently installed in six hospitals across Germany, including four hospitals that cover the commercial treatment of brain tumour patients. Although foreign patients are able to receive treatment in Germany, the planned roll-out should enable patients to be treated in their homeland, which is expected to result in a correspondingly greater number of treatments. On-site treatment also brings advantages in terms of costs, which is not only expected to benefit patients, but would in this case also lead to an easier reimbursement process.
Another important milestone for the forthcoming financial year 2018 will be reached when approval is granted for MagForce technology to treat prostate cancer. On the recommendation of the FDA, the foundations for market approval in the USA were laid in the last financial year with the company successfully repeating the pre-clinical trial it had already conducted in Germany. The study demonstrated once again that the nanoparticles are non-toxic and that they remain in the region of application.
Following the submission of the results at the end of 2016, we still expect the clinical approval trial to begin within the first six months of 2017. According to the schedule we have adopted, we should receive market approval in mid-2018, i.e. around six months later than previously expected. We have adapted our sales projections in line with this amended schedule.
In our projections, we have primarily factored an increasing number of treatments of brain tumour patients in Germany for the current financial year 2017. According to the company, there has been a recent surge to around 600 requests per year due to greater awareness of NanoTherm® therapy. On this basis, we are assuming that the number of treatments will increase over the current financial year. In the forthcoming financial year, sales revenue is expected to include commercialisation income as part of prostate cancer treatment in the USA for the first time. We are expecting small market shares in this field, but this indication is demonstrating a significantly higher number of cases than for glioblastoma.
Based on the significant expected increase in sales revenue, we expect EBITDA – the output value for our valuation model – to record a margin of around 45%, which should mean that any increase in sales is reflected in a corresponding increase in EBITDA. In the DCF model we have calculated a fair value per share of €13.90 (until now: €14.30). Outgoing from the current share price we continue to assign a BUY rating.
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