JDC Group AG
11.10.2016 - Equity Research Einzelstudie // kaufen
Research Note – JDC Group AG - english
| For the original study, please click here |
ISIN: DE000A0B9N37
Branche: Dienstleistungen
Rating: kaufen
Kurs bei Erstellung in €: 5,92
Kursziel in €: 9,00
Mögl. Interessenskonflikt gem. §34b Abs.1 WpHG und FinAnv: 5a,11
JDC Group AG intensified the implementation of its strategy in the first six months of 2016. This includes the following:
• The introduction of the "allesmeins" app, which gives users an overview of their financial contract portfolio. The app links JDC’s traditional advisory business with the FinTech growth market.
• The purchase of a private-customer insurance portfolio with nearly 195,000 customers (annual commission income: around €5.0 million; annual EBITDA: around €4.0 million). This allows JDC to profit from the ongoing consolidation in the financial advisory services market (stricter regulatory requirements, succession planning, etc.) and puts the company in a position to gain market share.
• Acquisition of the online comparison platform "Geld.de" as a new channel to win end customers. There are potential synergies with both the traditional advisory business and the digital insurance folder "allesmeins".
• Acquisition of the private customer business of Aon Deutschland, which consists of nearly 20,000 contracts (annual commission income: around €1.5 million; annual EBITDA: around €1.2 million). The termination rate is expected to be low as these are mainly smaller contracts in the area of legal, liability, homeowners and household insurance.
The increase in customer numbers resulting from this anorganic growth (current number of customers: > 1.0 million) and the potential for gaining new customers via the recently acquired "Geld.de" domain form a solid basis for the use of the FinTech solution "allesmeins", which was launched in the market in 2016. The cross-selling opportunities possible here are based on the expectation of an increase in new customers and in existing customers. According to information provided by the company, the average contract density for newly acquired customers is one contract per customer. However, the average German has six financial contracts, which shows clearly the additional potential.
Against this backdrop, we expect significantly higher sales and earnings contributions in the second half-year of 2016. Especially given the good financial cushion, further anorganic growth can also be put to use expediently. The company is expected to continue to profit from the consolidation trend in the market for financial brokers, which also makes the currently attractive price levels possible. JDC Group AG’s strong expertise in the settlement of existing contracts puts the company in a good bargaining position when negotiating prices in the takeover process.
We are leaving our previous sales and earnings forecasts (see the research study of 04/07/2016) unchanged. JDC Group AG should be in a position to increase sales considerably in the second half-year of 2016, pushing revenues up to €91.28 million. In future financial years, the anorganic effects should have a year-round impact. As such, based on the customer base currently achieved, we believe that JDC Group AG will continue on this course of growth. The €100 million revenue mark could be exceeded as early as 2017.
Given the expected increase in revenue, we expect a rise in the EBITDA margin to over 9.0% (FY 2018e). This forms the basis for our DCF evaluation model, according to which we expect a further increase in Advisortech revenue and, in the medium-term, an EBITDA margin of over 9.0%. Based on the unchanged sales and earnings forecasts, we confirm our price target of €9.00 per share calculated using the DCF evaluation model. We reiterate our BUY rating.
Wichtiger Hinweis:
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