MPH Health Care AG

12.09.2012 - Equity Research Einzelstudie // kaufen

Research Report Update - MPH Mittelständische Pharma Holding AG - Buy

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Unternehmen: MPH Health Care AG
ISIN: DE000A0NF697
Branche: Biotechnologie-Pharma
Rating: kaufen
Kurs bei Erstellung in €: 10.09.2012 - 2,50
Kursziel in €: 4,70
Mögl. Interessenskonflikt gem. §34b Abs.1 WpHG und FinAnv: 5

Very good half-year figures in 2012; Windsor acquisition accelerates growth
significantly; target price increased

In the present half-year report for 2012, MPH Mittelständische Pharmaholding AG fully consolidated for the first time the Berlin company Windsor AG which was acquired in May 2012 (current shareholding: 52%). This resulted in significant differences in the profit situation as well as in the asset situation compared to previous reports.

MPH AG assigned the newly joined Windsor subsidiaries to the new Healthcare segment, in accordance with the new segmentation. At the same time, two new companies were founded for this segment, Healthcare Solutions GmbH and Nutri Care GmbH. MPH AG primarily intends to provide consultation services to pharmacies and physicians, which in our opinion represents a new and promising sales channel for the already existing business. The existing main revenue source of MPH AG, HAEMATO PHARM AG, is bundled in the new Pharma segment.

As before, the main sales contribution came from the subsidiary HAEMATO PHARM AG also in the last reporting period, with €87.03 million (PY: €70.27 million). The sales increase of +23.9% achieved compared to the previous year fits into the previously high sales dynamics in the field of Generics and Parallel Imports. Furthermore, the company is profiting from an attractive market environment characterised by savings efforts in the healthcare industry. In addition, MPH AG also shows inorganic sales growth. Due to the consolidation of Windsor AG, now fully assigned to the Healthcare segment, total sales for the first half of 2012 amounted to €99.30 million. Windsor AG thus contributes sales through the pharmaceutical subsidiaries and the sale of real estate projects amounting to €12.26 million.

Inorganic sales growth in addition caused a significant increase in operating earnings. The EBITDA increased in total to €11.00 million, significantly exceeding the previous year’s figure of €6.53 million by +68.4%. According to our calculations, the organic EBITDA increased by +4.1%. The principal part of earnings growth can thus be explained through inorganic effects, particularly with the sale of real estate projects at the Windsor level. The already existing business of MPH AG therefore shows solid margin development while sales continue to develop dynamically.

We have formulated our forecasts for the current and the coming financial year building on this foundation. On a full-year basis for 2012, we expect increased sales of €200.62 million. This sales expectation corresponds with our unchanged stand-alone forecasts, in addition to the sales contribution by Windsor AG. We applied the same procedure also to our sales forecasts for the coming financial year 2013 (€230.71 million). On the level of operating earnings (EBITDA), we included an improvement in the EBITDA margin in the calculation, which includes, on the one hand, the expected higher margin levels of the Pharma companies of Windsor AG and, on the other hand, possible scale effects. The forecast EBITDA margin for the coming financial year 2013 of 8.7% (€20.02 million) serves our DCF valuation model as a target value to be reached in the long term.

Within the DCF model, we calculated a fair value per share of €4.70 on the basis of the financial year 2013. The valuation thus shows a strong upward potential. We therefore confirm the BUY rating and regard MPH Mittelständische Pharmaholding AG as an attractive investment.


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