Greiffenberger AG

26.08.2015 - Equity Research Einzelstudie // kaufen

Research Report (Update) – Greiffenberger AG - english - buy

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Unternehmen: Greiffenberger AG
ISIN: DE0005897300
Branche: Industrie-Maschinenbau-Technologie-Automotive
Rating: kaufen
Kurs bei Erstellung in €: 3,93
Kursziel in €: 6,80
Mögl. Interessenskonflikt gem. §34b Abs.1 WpHG und FinAnv: 5a;5b;11

• After a relatively weak Q1 2015, Greiffenberger AG was able to significantly improve sales growth in Q2 2015. Revenue in Q2 2015 was EUR 39.8 million compared to EUR 34.6 million in Q1 2015. The Eberle and BKP subsidiaries made a significant contribution to the solid performance as they both experienced significant improvements in sales. The ABM subsidiary also improved significantly in Q2, even though they still failed to reach the previous year´s earnings levels. The overall semi-annual sales at the group level were EUR 74.43 million and thus 1.7% below the levels from the previous year.

• In terms of EBIT, the same amount as the previous year was achieved, despite total operating performance falling by EUR 4.12 million, primarily due to reductions in inventories. The reason the EUR 0.67 million EBIT remained unchanged from H1 2014 was cost reductions, which were carried out at all three consolidated companies, and the impact they had.

• Along with the publication of the semi-annual figures, Greiffenberger AG detailed the guidance for the FY 2015. Revenue is projected to be in a bandwidth between EUR 153 and 158 million. ABM shall play a decisive role in reaching the upper or lower portion of the range as the growth in HY1 2015 has not yet fully unfolded. Nevertheless, the prospects for HY2 2015 are very positive with a book to bill ratio exceeding 1.

• In the face of a somewhat weaker than expected sales development at ABM, we have adjusted our sales projections slightly and now expect EUR 154.86 million, which is also within the range of the projections issued by the company. We still expect significantly intensifying growth dynamics for 2016 across all subsidiaries.

• Due to the slightly reduced sales projections, we have adjusted the revenue projections. Rather than the previously expected EUR 4.16 million, we now expect an EBIT of EUR 3.75 million. We are still forecasting an EBIT margin of 4.1% for 2016. In the process, the cost reductions already underway will be supplemented with economies of scale as revenue further increases.

• Overall, we still see Greiffenberger AG as making the right moves to once again achieve historic profitability levels. In addition, the Greiffenberger AG shares have a very affordable valuation. Currently the company is trading at a 30% discount to the equity value. According to our estimates, we expect a P/E ratio for the FY 2016 of about 8. In the face of our slightly downgraded estimates, we are adjusting the target price from the previous EUR 7.10 to EUR 6.80. Thus the BUY rating has remained firmly in place.


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