16.04.2014 - Equity Research Einzelstudie // kaufen

Research Anno - Sygnis AG - Buy

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Unternehmen: SYGNIS AG
Branche: Biotechnologie-Pharma
Rating: kaufen
Kurs bei Erstellung in €: 15.04.2014; 4,52
Kursziel in €: 6,00
Mögl. Interessenskonflikt gem. §34b Abs.1 WpHG und FinAnv: 4;5

As expected, SYGNIS AG still generated low revenues in the completed 2013 financial year, reaching a figure of EUR 0.48 million (PY: EUR 0.21 million). This is attributable to the lack of commercialisation revenues in the 2013 financial year for the current main product SensiPhi®, whose marketing (marketing partner: Qiagen) commenced in the first quarter of 2014.

SYGNIS AG has successfully ended the restructuring and thus adjustment of the organisation to the new business model and should thus profit from economies of scale in the future. In the 2013 financial year already, the operational costs at €4.77m were substantially below those of the previous year (pro forma figures FY 2012: €9.89m). This indicates a lean organisational structure.

SYGNIS AG has a well-filled pipeline with three products, for which an outlicensing is to be assumed for the current 2014 financial year. The main product SensiPhi® (former name: QualiPhi®) was already outlicensed in the 2012 financial year to the marketing partner Qiagen, one of the leading companies for sample and test technologies. The marketing of SensiPhi®, which constitutes the basis for two Qiagen kits for the amplification of complete genomes (DNA) and transcriptomes (RNA) from individual cells (REPLI-g WTA Single Cell Kit and REPLI-g Cell WGA & WTA Kit) started in the first quarter of 2014. The strong strategic alignment of Qiagen to the NGS market is of benefit here, meaning that an intensive and continuous marketing is to be assumed.

In the 2013 financial year, SYGNIS AG substantially improved its liquidity situation both via a capital increase (net proceeds: €2.84m) and via loans from major shareholders. As of 31/12/2013, the liquid funds amount to €2.20m and, in our opinion, should be sufficient until the break-even is reached.

On an EBIT basis, the company should be able to reach the break-even pursuant to the current estimate in the forthcoming 2015 financial year. The basis of this forecast is primarily the expected marketing revenues of SensiPhi®, as well as the outlicensing and marketing of other products that have already been fully developed. For the 2014 financial year, we are anticipating revenues amounting to €2.52m (company guidance: €2.00m – €2.50m). In the forthcoming financial years, it is expected that significant amounts will be generated from the marketing of the product pipeline. We are anticipating revenues amounting to €3.91m (FY 2015e) and €8.22m (FY 2016e).

In light of the increasing revenue basis and a lean organisational structure, the growth of earnings should be higher compared to revenue growth. This reflects our long-term expected high EBIT margin of 65.0%.

Based on a DCF model, we have determined a fair value per share of €6.00. In light of the current price levels, we are renewing our BUY rating.


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